Marine Insurance: The Hidden Chokepoint of Global Trade

The outbreak of the US–Iran war on February 28, 2026, has triggered the most severe dislocation in global marine insurance markets in decades. War-risk premiums in the Persian Gulf have surged by more than 500% in a matter of days from 0.15%–0.20% to approximately 1%+ of hull and machinery value while daily Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) freight rates have climbed 127% to $471,158/day by March 6. More than ten commercial vessels have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since hostilities began, prompting major P&I clubs and hull war-risk insurers to cancel or suspend coverage for Gulf transits. The strait through which an estimated $1.2 trillion in annual oil and LNG trade flows has collapsed from ~135 vessel transits per day to near zero, sending crude benchmarks above $100/barrel and threatening a global supply deficit. The marine insurance crisis is not peripheral: it is the primary financial choke point through which geopolitical war risk transmits into commodity prices, freight economics, and global supply chain stability.