Global Shockwaves: Energy Disruption, Cooling Labor, and Fragile U.S. Growth

Recent macro data presents a nuanced picture of resilience underpinned by escalating risk. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.4% for a second consecutive month of expansion, but the Prices Index’s 11.5-point surge to 70.5% its highest since June 2022 signals acute cost-push pressure across 14 industries, driven by persistent shortages in electronic components and electrical components. ADP’s February employment report showed 63,000 private-sector jobs added the most since July 2025, but the gain was almost entirely concentrated in Education/Health (+58,000) and Construction (+19,000), while Professional/Business Services shed 30,000. The record-low job-changer pay premium of 6.3% signals meaningful labor market cooling.

Consumer confidence edged up 2.2 points to 91.2 in February but remains 21.6 points below November 2024’s four-year peak of 112.8, with inflation, trade policy, and political uncertainty dominating consumer write-in responses. The dominant macro risk is the Strait of Hormuz crisis: Brent spiked from ~$73/bbl. to an intraday high above $78 on March 2. Risking approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude and 20% of global LNG supply face direct supply chain disruption, with India (85% LPG exposure), China, and European aviation most acutely exposed. OPEC+’s April quota increase of 206,000 b/d is insufficient to offset Strait-level volumes, and Russia stands to benefit materially from an accelerated demand pivot by Asian buyers.